Relatively soon the swearing in will occur for the 48 MHA’s, 14 of them new, for this week’s blog I decided to offer up my projections for all 48 MHA’s in this term and the roles they will play in a cabinet, as a parliamentary secretary, as a speaker, or as a deputy speaker, as caucus chair, as caucus whip or an opposition critic. Also my projections are purely speculation on my part and though I consider myself to be well-versed in politics I don’t know of any definite plans for the cabinet and I’ll be as much in the lurch when the cabinet is announced as others, without any further adieu here is the projections for all 48 MHA’s:
Liberal Dwight Ball: There is talk that Dwight Ball may be in the running for leader of the opposition when Kevin Aylward announces his long-term plans, this has to be greeted as good news for the Liberals as Dwight is well-known and I consider him a good politician.
Projection for Ball: Opposition House Leader, Finance Critic, Innovation Critic, Environment Critic
Liberal Jim Bennett: The former leader of the opposition won the closest race in the province over PC Wally Young. Bennett comes across as being mild-mannered which is something the Liberals haven’t been known for in recent years so I look for him to get a key critic role.
Projection for Bennett: Fisheries Critic, Justice Critic, Business Critic
PC David Brazil: The MHA for Conception Bay East Bell Island since 2010 is someone I see as a rising star in the PC caucus, he hasn’t been a parliamentary secretary yet but due to the defeat of a few PC MHA’s in the St.John’s area in this election I see him getting into cabinet.
Projection for Brazil: Minister of Tourism
PC Joan Burke: When people are asked which minister has performed the best in the PC government since 2003 Burke’s name is 1 that many often mention and it’s easy to see why. During her 8 years in government she has been minister of Child Youth and Family Services, Education and Human Resources, Labor and Employment and Government House Leader. Burke will be staying in cabinet but I think she’ll get to be minister of another department.
Projection for Burke: Minister of Health
PC Felix Collins: Collins is someone that could be a good fit in any government department, I think for now he will stay at justice.
Projection: Minister of Justice
PC Sandy Collins: The youngest of the PC MHA’s, Collins has done a good job during his 2 years in office, I doubt he gets any specific role in the government at this time but his time is coming.
Projection: PC Caucus Chair
PC Tony Cornect: Joan Burke’s former political assistant, he has been the PC caucus whip for the past 4 years, at this time I can see him becoming a parliamentary secretary.
Projection: Parliamentary Secretary to Premier
PC Eli Cross: The new MHA for Bonavista North comes from a political family as his father was the MHA here from 1975 to 1979 and 1982 to 1985. His father was never in cabinet and I can’t see Eli getting into cabinet at this time either.
Projection: No role
PC Dan Crummell: The new MHA for St.John’s West is well-versed in business which should make him valuable in the government, for all that I don’t see him getting into cabinet either.
Projection: No role
PC Derrick Dalley: The MHA who beat Gerry Reid has been Business Minister for a few months now and is a good up and coming MHA, he gets into cabinet again and will probably get a higher-profile ministry.
Projection: Minister of Child, Youth and Family Services
PC Paul Davis: Davis is another MHA who has a good future ahead of him, provided his health concerns are behind him I see him getting into cabinet.
Projection: Minister of Agriculture
PC John Dinn: The former St.John’s city councillor has done pretty good thus far as a MHA, don’t see him getting into cabinet but I see him getting something.
Projection: #3 Speaker
PC Kathy Dunderdale: No question about Dunderdale’s role, she will stay on as premier of our province.
Projection: Premier
Liberal Randy Edmunds: Edmunds returned Torngat Mountains to the Liberal fold on election night, it’s been historically Liberal but due to the small Liberal caucus I think he’ll play a key role in a Liberal shadow cabinet.
Projection: Transportation Critic, Labrador and Aboriginal Affairs Critic, Child, Youth and Family Services Critic
PC Clayton Forsey: Forsey has been chair of the PC caucus since 2007, I look for him to get an increased role. He’s done many good things for his district since 2005 according to many people.
Projection: Minister of Environment
PC Terry French: The tourism minister, French certainly brought a lot of attention to that file during his time there. It’s a busy portfolio but 1 that is fun, I think French will get a promotion in the new cabinet.
Projection: Minister of Government Services
PC Vaughn Granter: The MHA for Humber West is coming off 2 victories off 2 high-profile candidates for the Liberals, don’t think he gets into cabinet but I can see him getting another role.
Projection: Parl.Secretary to Minister of Agrifoods
PC Tom Hedderson: Hedderson enters his 4th term and is a shoo-in for cabinet again, the former teacher would be a fit in any role.
Projection: Minister of Municipal and Provincial Affairs
PC Ray Hunter: Hunter has been a MHA for 12 years and has yet to be in any kind of key role for the government, I look for that to change this time.
Projection: Parl.Secretary to Minister of Health
PC Keith Hutchings: During every cabinet shuffle of the past 2-3 years I’ve said Keith Hutchings will get into cabinet, I think now is his time, don’t know what ministry he gets but he’s going to be minister of something.
Projection: Minister of Business
PC Clyde Jackman: Of all the winning PC MHA’s, Jackman’s victory was the closest. Jackman’s district is going through a tough economic time right now which is beyond his control. I wonder if to spread the talent of cabinet around if Premier Dunderdale will remove Jackman as minister and give him a role in the duties of the house.
Projection: Speaker Of The House
PC Charlene Johnson: The youngest woman ever elected to the House of Assembly, Johnson has been a key member of the PC caucus and should have no worries about staying in cabinet, what dept. she gets is in question.
Projection: Minister of Fisheries
Liberal Yvonne Jones: On Friday Jones announced she would be the de-facto opposition leader among elected MHA’s which has to be greeted as meh news for the Liberals, I figured they’d put Dwight Ball in that position, whatever the case Jones has the experience as leader.
Projection: Leader of the Opposition, Education Critic, Tourism Critic, Agrifoods Critic
Liberal Eddie Joyce: Joyce does have the experience as he was an MHA for 8 years, he’s a bit of a loud mouth though so I think the Liberals may want to shield him a bit but his experience may lead him to a high-department critic’s position.
Projection for Joyce: Deputy Opposition House Leader, Health Critic, HRLE Critic, Government Services Critic
PC Jerome Kennedy: Kennedy has been both Finance and Health minister during his time as MHA and been a good minister at both portfolios. As he has been in Health for a while now I can see him getting another portfolio though a higher 1 that will keep him in the public eye.
Projection for Kennedy: Minister of Transportation
PC Steve Kent: I see Agriculture getting its own portfolio again this year, Kent has been the parliamentary secretary for that for a couple years, don’t know if he gets it in the shuffle.
Projection for Kent: PC Caucus Whip
PC Darin King: The mild-mannered King is likely to get another key role in the new cabinet, I’m biased as he is my MHA but I think if I was doing the cabinet instead of projecting it Darin would get one of the top positions.
Projection for King: Minister of Energy
NDP Dale Kirby: Before Kirby was elected, people where saying that he was going to be a key member of the NDP caucus and possibly the party’s next leader, for right now I like him to play a Justin Trudeau role, you know the guy will probably go for the party leadership some day just not at the moment and will be 2nd or 3rd in the NDP chain of command.
Projection for Kirby: Finance Critic, NDP Deputy House Leader, Education Critic, Government Services Critic, Business Critic
PC Paul Lane: The former Mount Pearl city councillor continues the tradition of Mt.Pearl city councillors going onto serve in the House of Assembly. I don’t think he gets into cabinet just yet, though.
Projection for Lane: No role
PC Glen Little: Little kept up the PC tradition in Bonavista South by winning the seat for the PC’s, it’s been PC for 35 of the past 39 years, the district has been without cabinet representation for 18 years and I think that probably continues.
Projection for Little:
PC Glen Littlejohn: Of all the new MHA’s in the PC caucus Littlejohn has the potential to be the most high-profile, that said his area of the province is represented by the 1-2-3 punch of Charlene Johnson, Jerome Kennedy and Tom Hedderson, all 3 of whom will be ministers again. That said Littlejohn is a well-known former mayor and did win Port De Grave for the PC’s for the first time in many years, parliamentary secretary perhaps?
Projection for Littlejohn: Parliamentary Secretary to Minister of HRLE
PC Tom Marshall: As I said last week if the PC party where a hockey team this guy would be the GM. Though this province has remained relatively stable during the tough economic times of the past couple years, finance is a position that you want stability in so I see Marshall staying there.
Projection for Marshall: Minister of Finance
PC Nick Mcgrath: A well-known person in tourism circles, Mcgrath will be considered for cabinet due to geography mainly, will be interesting.
Projection for Mcgrath:
NDP Lorraine Michael: Though they didn’t get to be opposition you have to believe the NDP leader is buoyed by her party’s performance in the recent election, she won a convincing victory in her own district and as her caucus is 5 times bigger I can see her getting some critic roles but not as many as before.
Projection for Michael: NDP Leader, Transportation Critic, Justice Critic, Intergovernmental Affairs Critic
NDP Chris Mitchelmore: I think even the most ardent NDP supporters didn’t have them winning The Straits White Bay North. Mitchelmore though is apparently relatively strong and works in economic development so look for him to get some key critic roles.
Projection for Mitchelmore: Fisheries Critic, Municipal and Provinicial Affairs Critic, Labrador and Aboriginal Affairs Critic
NDP George Murphy: Another result I don’t think anyone saw coming, Murphy is well-known for predicting gas prices. The former taxi driver and Liberal will more than likely play a key role in the NDP caucus.
Projection for Murphy: Natural Resources Critic, HRLE Critic, Agriculture Critic, Environment Critic
PC Kevin O’brien: After a couple cabinet posts that where mid-level O’brien got promoted in the most recent cabinet shuffle, I can see O’brien in any number of portfolios but 1 that will be in the lower of the high level spots.
Projection for O’brien: Minister of Innovation
PC Tom Osborne: Osborne is the only PC MHA representing the 5 St.John’s named districts who is not a political rookie, he has been out of cabinet since 2007 but has experience in key portfolios such as health, environment and justice, I look for him to get a key ministry.
Projection for Osborne: Minister of Human Resources, Labor and Employment
Liberal Andrew Parsons: Kelvin’s son is his replacement as MHA for Burgeo Lapoile, Parsons is one of the first “new” Liberal MHA’s elected in a general election since 1999, he’s 32 so he can be a cornerstone for the Liberal party for years to come.
Projection for Parsons: Energy Critic, Municipal Affairs Critic, Intergovernmental Affairs Critic
PC Kevin Parsons: the MHA for Cape St.Francis since 2008, Parsons represents one of the fastest growing towns in the province, don’t know if that’ll mean a promotion for him or not but he’s deserving of one.
Projection for Parsons:
PC Calvin Peach: Peach won Bellevue by close to 1900 votes in the October 11th election, many people consider Peach to be extremely hard working, don’t know if that translates into any sort of position for him but whatever his role in caucus Peach is sure to give it his all.
Projection for Peach: Parl.Secretary to Minister of Innovation
PC Tracey Perry: Another MHA with a bright future ahead of her, Perry has been a legislative assistant since her first election, with the retirement of 3 ministers and defeat of 2 ministers, you have to wonder if Perry will get 1 of the openings in cabinet, I can tell you if she does she’ll give it her 110%
Projection for Perry: Parl.Secretary to Minister of Fisheries
PC Kevin Pollard: On the island part of the province Pollard is the northern most MHA as he represents Baie Verte Springdale, Pollard has been a back bencher since his first election but he’s hard working and well-respected, that and geography could lead to him getting into cabinet.
Projection for Pollard: Deputy Speaker
NDP Gerry Rogers: The well-known Rogers scored one of the biggest upsets in recent political history in this province with a win over high-profile cabinet minister, Shawn Skinner. That is sure to get Rogers a few high-profile critic roles for the NDP.
Projection for Rogers: Health, Education, Tourism, Child Youth and Family Services Critic
PC Keith Russell: A former member of the Nunasiavut government, Russell is sure to get some sort of position within the government. As a MHA from Labrador you know what position he’ll probably get.
Projection for Russell: Minister of Labrador and Aboriginal Affairs
PC Susan Sullivan: The former deputy mayor of Grand Falls has become a good provincial politician as well. She and her region has done quite well during recent years despite the circumstances surrounding the mill closure, look for her to get another high-profile portfolio in cabinet
Projection for Sullivan: Minister of Education
PC Wade Verge: The MHA for Lewisporte since 2007, Verge has been a backbencher since his first election in 2007, he’s been effective though as a backbencher so a promotion of some sort though not to cabinet could be in order.
Projection for Verge: Parl. Secretary to Minister of Innovation
PC Ross Wiseman: Beating Brad Cabana was something that I think a lot of people are grateful and it would probably get you a cabinet position. The fact that you’re Ross Wiseman leads people to know that you will be in cabinet anyway. Wiseman who got a lot of undeserved crap while in cabinet has had relatively low-profile positions since he left health, look for him to get a promotion in the new cabinet.
Projection for Wiseman: Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs/Government House LEader
In summary here is my projected cabinet:
Premier: Kathy Dunderdale
Minister of Finance: Joan Burke
Minister of Health: Tom Marshall
Minister of Energy: Darin King
Minister of Transportation: Jerome Kennedy
Minister of Education: Susan Sullivan
Minister of Innovation: Kevin O’brien
Minister of Fisheries: Charlene Johnson
Minister of Human Resources, Labor and Employment: Tom Osborne
Minister of Municipal and Provincial Affairs: Tom Hedderson
Minister of Child, Youth and Family Services: Derrick Dalley
Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs/Government House Leader: Ross Wiseman
Minister of Justice: Felix Collins
Minister of Labrador and Aboriginal Affairs: Keith Russell
Minister of Government Services: Terry French
Minister of Environment: Clayton Forsey
Minister of Business: Keith Hutchings
Minister of Tourism: David Brazil
Minister of Agrifoods: Paul Davis
House of Assembly Roles:
Speaker: Clyde Jackman
Deputy Speaker: Kevin Pollard
#3 Speaker: John Dinn
Parliamentary Secretaries
To The Premier: Tony Cornect
To Minister of Health: Ray Hunter
To Minister of HRLE: Glen Littlejohn
To Minister of Innovation: Wade Verge
To Minister of Fisheries: Tracey Perry
To Minister of Agrifoods: Vaughn Granter
Caucus Roles:
PC Caucus Chair: Sandy Collins
PC Caucus Whip: Steve Kent
PC House Leader: Ross Wiseman
Liberal Caucus Chair: Eddie Joyce
Liberal Caucus Whip: Jim Bennett
Liberal House Leader: Dwight Ball
NDP Caucus Chair: Dale Kirby
NDP Caucus Whip: Chris Mitchelmore
NDP House Leader: Gerry Rogers
Opposition Critic Roles:
Liberal Premier: Yvonne Jones
NDP Premier: Lorraine Michael
Liberal Finance: Dwight Ball
NDP Finance: Dale Kirby
Liberal Health: Eddie Joyce
NDP Health: Gerry Rogers
Liberal Energy: Andrew Parsons
NDP Energy: George Murphy
Liberal Fisheries: Jim Bennett
NDP Fisheries: Chris Mitchelmore
Liberal Transportation: Randy Edmunds
NDP Transportation: Lorraine Michael
Liberal Education: Yvonne Jones
NDP Education: Dale Kirby
Liberal Innovation: Dwight Ball
NDP Innovation: Gerry Rogers
Liberal HRLE: Eddie Joyce
NDP HRLE: George Murphy
Liberal Municipal and Provincial Affairs: Andrew Parsons
NDP Municipal and Provincial Affairs: Chris Mitchelmore
Liberal Justice: Jim Bennett
NDP Justice: Lorraine Michael
Liberal Labrador and Aboriginal Affairs: Randy Edmunds
NDP Labrador and Aboriginal Affairs: Chris Mitchelmore
Liberal Tourism: Yvonne Jones
NDP Tourism: Gerry Rogers
Liberal Environment: Dwight Ball
NDP Environment: George Murphy
Liberal Government Services: eddie Joyce
NDP Government Services: Dale Kirby
Liberal Intergovernmental Affairs: Andrew Parsons
NDP Intergovernmental Affairs: Lorraine Michael
Liberal Business: Jim Bennett
NDP Business: Dale Kirby
Liberal Child, Youth and Family Services: Randy Edmunds
NDP Child, Youth and Family Services: Gerry Rogers
Liberal Agrifoods: Yvonne Jones
NDP Agrifoods: George Murphy
Readers are invited to contact the author with their comments at tducey1@gmail.com or by posting a comment below. Hope you enjoyed reading this. Be fun to see how many of these projections come true.
